Stop guessing.
Trade with edge.Not noise.
Problys.io delivers deep analysis on every prediction market so you always know the real probability, not just the crowd's.
USFed Rate Cut Q2 2026 62%|Edge: OVERPRICEDBTCBitcoin >$120k EOY 38%|Edge: UNDERPRICEDMACNext US Recession by 2027 44%|Edge: FAIR VALUEGEOTaiwan Strait Incident 2026 12%|Edge: OVERPRICEDAIAGI Declared by End of 2027 27%|Edge: UNDERPRICEDENEBrent Crude >$90 by June 31%|Edge: FAIR VALUEUSFed Rate Cut Q2 2026 62%|Edge: OVERPRICEDBTCBitcoin >$120k EOY 38%|Edge: UNDERPRICEDMACNext US Recession by 2027 44%|Edge: FAIR VALUEGEOTaiwan Strait Incident 2026 12%|Edge: OVERPRICEDAIAGI Declared by End of 2027 27%|Edge: UNDERPRICEDENEBrent Crude >$90 by June 31%|Edge: FAIR VALUE
12K+
Active markets tracked
2
Major platforms covered
94%
Analyst call accuracy (backtested)
~4h
Avg time ahead of price moves
What you get
Your unfair information advantage
Deep Market Analysis
Every prediction market gets a structured breakdown: base rates, comparable events, expert sources, and a clear verdict on whether the market is fairly priced.
Core Feature
Real-Time Probability Tracking
Watch market odds shift in real time across both Polymarket and Kalshi. Spot divergences between platforms before arbitrageurs close the gap.
Live Data
Edge Ratings
Each market is scored: UNDERPRICED, OVERPRICED, or FAIR VALUE. Know at a glance where the smart money should flow and why.
Proprietary
Smart Alerts
Get notified when a market's edge rating flips, when volume spikes, or when news breaks that directly impacts a prediction you're watching.
Coming Soon
Analyst Reasoning Logs
Don't just see the verdict. Read the full reasoning chain with reference sources, counterarguments, and confidence intervals.
Full Transparency
Historical Track Record
Every past call is archived with outcome data so you can judge where Problys.io was right, where it was wrong, and how calibrated the ratings really are.
Public Record
Process
How Problys.io finds the edge
Raw market odds go in. Calibrated, auditable edge calls come out. Problys blends live pricing, context signals, historical analogs, and review logic into one repeatable intelligence pipeline.
01
Ingest
Signal Ingestion Layer
Problys Engine
Live Stream
Polymarket Feed
Orderbooks, price action, open interest, and contract rules synced continuously across active markets.
MarketsVolumeResolution Rules
12.4k
contracts monitored
Regulated Feed
Kalshi Feed
Structured snapshots of bid/ask spreads, series metadata, and contract documentation from regulated venues.
KalshiSeries MetadataSpread Data
2.4k
regulated contracts
Context
News Signal Engine
Macro headlines, politics, tech releases, and analyst notes are mapped to live markets before price catches up.
NewsEntity MatchingRelevance
2.2k
articles scored / day
Archive
Comparable Events Store
A structured archive of historical analogs, prior resolutions, and macro time-series used for base-rate analysis.
Base RatesOutcomesHistorical Events
500+
comparables indexed
02
Analyze
Problys Analysis Engine
Problys Engine
This is the moat: raw market odds are converted into auditable fair-value estimates.
Model
Base Rate Engine
Each market is anchored to real-world analogs so the analysis starts from history instead of sentiment.
Bayesian PriorSimilarity SearchScenario Weighting
3.1pp
backtested prior error
Reasoning
Evidence Chain
Bull case, bear case, catalysts, and expert references are logged into a transparent analyst chain.
SourcesCounterargumentsConfidence Inputs
7-step
analysis workflow
Verdict
Edge Classifier
Problys compares fair probability versus live market pricing to tag each setup as underpriced, overpriced, or fair value.
Edge SizeConfidenceMispricing Bands
+/-3pp
fair-value band
03
Review
Analyst Review + Calibration
Problys Engine
Review
Analyst Desk
High-impact markets get a final human pass so conviction, timing, and edge framing stay disciplined.
Manual ReviewOverride RulesRisk Notes
<20m
average review latency
Calibration
Track Record Monitor
Signals are scored against outcomes so every rating improves over time and weak assumptions get exposed.
Outcome LoggingHit RateConfidence Calibration
Live
performance archive
04
Deliver
Member Delivery Layer
Problys Engine
Output
Edge Dashboard
Members see verdicts, edge size, confidence, and active market queues in one operating surface.
DashboardLive QueueReports
Real-Time
signal visibility
Alerts
Action Triggers
When a market moves into a meaningful edge zone, Problys can escalate it into alerts and follow-up notes.
AlertsPriority FlagsRe-rating
~4h
ahead of price moves
Transparency
Reasoning Logs
Every premium signal carries the thesis, references, counterpoints, and a public record of whether the call held up.
ThesisSourcesHistorical Accuracy
Full
audit trail
14.8k+
Markets and contracts continuously monitored
18m
Average time from ingestion to a fully reviewed signal
7-step
Structured reasoning chain behind each premium verdict
+/-3pp
Band where Problys treats a market as fairly priced
Pricing
Choose the access tier that fits your edge
Start lightweight, upgrade when you want deeper conviction tooling, or lock in founding access before public launch.
Starter
For curious traders getting signal coverage fast.
$20
/month
+Daily edge ratings across core markets
+Polymarket and Kalshi monitoring
+Structured thesis breakdowns
+Email summaries and launch updates
Most Popular
Pro
For active traders who want conviction, speed, and context.
$40
/month
+Everything in Starter
+Full analyst reasoning logs
+Priority edge alerts
+Deeper historical calibration views
+Faster access to new market coverage
Founding Rate
Founding
For early believers who want long-term access locked in.
$100
one-time
+Everything in Pro
+One-time payment, no recurring bill
+Founding member pricing lock-in
+Private roadmap updates
Live Preview
Markets being analyzed right now
Realtime market board
PROBLYS.IO LIVE MARKET FEED
Will the Fed cut rates in May 2026?
62%
62%
62%
Confidence Score
UNDERPRICED
Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by Dec 2026?
29%
29%
29%
Confidence Score
OVERPRICED
Will any nation state adopt a CBDC by end of 2026?
51%
51%
51%
Confidence Score
FAIR VALUE
Will a leading AI lab claim AGI before 2028?
34%
34%
34%
Confidence Score
UNDERPRICED
Integrations
Covering the two biggest prediction markets
Polymarket
Crypto-native prediction markets
+
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contracts
More platforms coming: PredictIt, Manifold, Metaculus, and internal models.
Early Feedback
What early users are saying
I've been trading Polymarket for two years. Problys.io is the first tool that gives me a real reason to update my priors, not just my position size.
The edge ratings alone are worth it. Saved me from two bad Kalshi macro bets in my first week. The reasoning log is genuinely impressive.
Finally something for people who actually care about the fundamentals. Most prediction market tools are just charts. Problys.io is actual analysis.
Early Access
Get in before everyone else
We're rolling out access in batches. Join the waitlist to be first in line and tell us how you trade so we can prioritize the markets that matter to you.